District DATA
- Joe Stewart
- Apr 2
- 1 min read
Registered Voters (from the voter file)
Total People in File | 106,506 |
Phones | 87,059 |
Doors | 62,803 |
Mailboxes | 68,051 |
Expected Turnout (based on past elections)
Using comparable off-year Virginia elections (the most relevant analog for a 2025 State Senate race):
Election | Turnout % |
2021 Governor | 54.9% |
2019 Delegate races | 52.4% |
2017 Governor/statewide | 47.6% |
2018 US Senate | 59.5% |
Best comparable: 2021 Governor (54.9%) or 2019 Delegate (52.4%) Projected Expected Vote: ~52–55% of 106,506 = ~55,383–58,578 votes cast
Win Number
Using the guide's formula (52% of expected vote):
At 54% turnout → ~57,513 expected votes → Win Number ≈ 29,907
At 52% turnout → ~55,383 expected votes → Win Number ≈ 28,799
Target Win Number: ~29,000–30,000 votes
Partisan Lean
This district leans slightly Republican in most cycles, but is genuinely competitive:
Race | D % | R % |
2021 Governor | 45.8% | 53.6% |
2019 Delegate | 51.5% | 46.4% |
2018 US Senate | 52.6% | 45.5% |
2017 Governor | 50.0% | 49.1% |
2016 President | 45.8% | 48.2% |
Key insight: The district swings based on the environment. Democrats can win it (2017 Gov, 2018 Senate, 2019 Delegate) but it's not a safe D seat.
Universe Estimates (rough)
Universe | Definition | Estimated Size |
Base (strong D, VoteProp 80+, Partisanship 70+) | Will vote D without much help | ~18,000–20,000 |
Turnout (lean D, low propensity) | Need to be pushed to vote | ~8,000–10,000 |
Persuasion (mid partisanship 40–60) | Truly persuadable | ~10,000–12,000 |
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